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Real options valuation in oil and gas
Real options valuation in oil and gas




For example, Acciaro applied the real option model to calculate the correlation between LNG investment cost and fuel price and suggested that decision-makers should adopt advanced technology to keep LNG price at a certain level. After Stewart Myers introduced the real option theory into the investment field, the option theory and method have made great progress in solving the problem of option pricing and project risk and have been extended to the fields of land development, mine operation, and mining investment. According to the different execution times of option contracts, real options are divided into American and European options. Real options are derived from financial options therefore, their classification can refer to real financial options. Compared with the binary tree model, the model is superior to the traditional option pricing method in the application effect, which provides a scientific basis for investment decision-making. The application shows that the ROV of oil and gas exploration project of company A is 1.39 million US$ (USMM$), and the project value is 279.87 USMM$. Finally, the project option value is calculated. Volatility is predicted based on the GARCH model, and then, the trinomial tree of the underlying asset value, evolution chart, sequential compound option chart, and portfolio option chart is established, respectively. The pricing model of portfolio options is constructed by the trigeminal tree method, and sequential compound diagram and compound option diagram are built. By analysing the real options involved in oil and gas exploration assets, the investment process is divided into European options and American options. To avoid the investment risk of exploration projects, a portfolio option method based on the trigeminal tree model was proposed. This brings many challenges to investment decisions regarding the sustainable utilization of exploration assets. So exploration project investment is usually chartered by multistages. Uncertainty of crude oil market causes the value of oil and gas exploration assets to fluctuate upward, remain unchanged, and fluctuate downward.






Real options valuation in oil and gas